It’s a common refrain among color commentators and hockey fans alike, noting when a player is or is not “showing up” for the playoffs. Numerous otherwise-HOF players have received the “playoff bust” label for simply not winning the Stanley Cup (despite the fact that a team’s path through the playoffs is fraught with randomness). Players like Alex Ovechkin and Joe Thornton have grappled with media narratives about their postseason futility for a long time, so I figured I would see if the data supports this argument, and what’s more if maybe there are some more-deserving players for these criticism — and what the heck, let’s find some true “playoff heroes” as well.

For the analysis below, I am comparing regular season scoring and penalty minute data to the same measures in playoff games, and focusing on a pool of players who exceed the sample-size threshold we need for assessing player performance through these measures (50+ playoff games played). This gives us a pool of 1,135 players from the 1917-18 through 2018-19 seasons. All data was drawn from hockey-reference.com.

First of all, it’s worth noting that we should expect all players to score a bit less in the playoffs–logically, the competition will be more difficult because you’re essentially shaving away the bottom-performing half of the league. Sure enough, if you look at the scoring rate per game across these NHLers:

Situation	Goals/GP	Assists/GP	Points/GP	Penalty Mins/GP
Avg Regular Season	0.21	0.34	0.55	0.88
Avg Playoffs	0.18	0.30	0.49	0.99

Stretch those performances out across an 82-game season, and the 17-goal, 28-assist, 45-point regular-season player becomes a 15-goal, 25-assist, 40-point player. It’s also interesting to note that this same average player commits more penalties in the playoffs, which means referees are not necessarily swallowing the whistle in these competitive, high-stakes games. If you split forwards from defensemen, you can see that most of the difference is coming from the forwards:

Player/Situation	Goals/GP	Assists/GP	Points/GP	Penalty Mins/GP
Avg Def Reg Season	0.09	0.29	0.38	1.00
Avg Def Playoffs	0.09	0.27	0.35	1.07
Avg Fwd Reg Season	0.27	0.38	0.65	0.82
Avg Fwd Playoffs	0.24	0.32	0.56	0.94

While the defensemen hardly move a blip, a 53-point forward in the regular season becomes a 46-point forward in the playoffs. The fact of this playoff scoring regression should be kept in mind when it comes to playoff critiques: a player performing on-par with the rest of the league — even a superstar — will score fewer points in the playoffs. Someone looking to place blame could level their criticism against a star player who was scoring less simply because the level of competition had increased.

So, which players demonstrated the highest increase in their scoring come playoff time? First, among forwards (n=744; the asterisk [*] indicates a Hall of Fame player):

Player	Played From-	To	Pts/G Above Reg Season Rate
Jude Drouin	1968	1981	0.26
Fleming MacKell	1947	1960	0.23
Craig Simpson	1985	1995	0.23
Steve Payne	1978	1988	0.23
Daniel Briere	1997	2015	0.22
Joel Ward	2006	2018	0.21
Kevin Stevens	1987	2002	0.20
Bob Probert	1985	2002	0.18
Bryan Bickell	2006	2017	0.18
Mark Messier*	1979	2004	0.18

Well, not a lot of Hall of Famers on that list. Kevin Stevens was among the few forwards to log a 50-goal, 50-assist, 200-penalty-minute season, and Craig Simpson scored 56 goals at age 20 — only to never do it again — but otherwise we’re looking at a lot of 2nd-line forwards. Bob Probert was far better known for his pugilism than his playoff prowess. The lone exception, Mark Messier, has been justifiably revered for his playoff accomplishments, and tough play when it mattered…but I wonder who sees a just-as-important hockey story in Steve Payne, our mystery player in the lead image for this post? Payne never won a Cup, though he did lead the underdog Minnesota North Stars to a Stanley Cup Final in 1981, and was considered by his general manager of the time, Lou Nanne (a legend of North Stars hockey) “the best clutch goal scorer we ever had.” Despite his skills, his career was cut short while he was still in his 20s, the victim of significant head and neck injuries.

Turning to defensemen (n=391), we get a bit similar amalgam:

Player	Played From-	To	Pts/G Above Reg Season Rate
Pat Stapleton	1961	1973	0.22
Trent Yawney	1987	1999	0.22
Brad Maxwell	1977	1987	0.17
Brian Leetch*	1987	2006	0.17
Jason Woolley	1991	2006	0.16
Dustin Byfuglien	2005	2019	0.15
Bob Dailey	1973	1982	0.15
Pierre Pilote*	1955	1969	0.15
J.C. Tremblay	1959	1972	0.15
Kevin Haller	1989	2002	0.14

Two Hall of Famers on this list, neither of whom matched the celebrated defensive defenseman (and current assistant coach of the Edmonton Oilers) Trent Yawney. Much like Messier, though, Brian Leetch was a renowned playoff performer and Conn Smythe Trophy recipient, and Pierre Pilote was the first, crucial building block in a Chicago franchise that finally shrugged off its perpetual-floormat reputation. It’s also worth noting that, with better health, Dustin Byfuglien might also have a shot at an asterisk.

What about the other end of the spectrum, the true “playoff busts”? Again, the forwards first, then defensemen:

Player	Played From-	To	Pts/G Below Reg Season Rate
Lorne Carr	1933	1946	-0.38
Nels Stewart*	1925	1940	-0.37
Dave Lumley	1978	1987	-0.36
Kent Nilsson	1979	1995	-0.36
Tyler Seguin	2010	2019	-0.35
Wilf Paiement	1974	1988	-0.35
Sweeney Schriner*	1934	1946	-0.35
Alexander Mogilny	1989	2006	-0.35
Pat Hickey	1975	1985	-0.34
Bill Clement	1971	1982	-0.34

Player	Played From-	To	Pts/G Below Reg Season Rate
Norm Maciver	1986	1998	-0.32
Reijo Ruotsalainen	1981	1990	-0.22
Andrei Markov	2000	2017	-0.22
Marc-Andre Bergeron	2002	2013	-0.22
Pavel Kubina	1997	2012	-0.20
Pat Price	1975	1988	-0.20
Mark Howe*	1979	1995	-0.19
King Clancy*	1921	1937	-0.19
Tomas Kaberle	1998	2013	-0.19
Jerry Korab	1970	1985	-0.19

Pretty much the same number of Hall of Famers, and Cup winners for that matter, along with at least a couple who were/are elite NHLers over a considerable amount of time (Mogilny, Seguin, Markov). Kent Nilsson’s best years were spent in the breakaway World Hockey Association of the 1970s…and then there’s a guy who built a more-successful career as a color commentator (Bill Clement)!

How about the two stars I mentioned above, Joe Thornton and Alex Ovechkin, both implicated as underperformers in the playoffs?

Player	Played From-	To	Pts/G Below Reg Season Rate
Joe Thornton	1997	2019	-0.20
Alex Ovechkin	2005	2019	-0.13

Thornton comes in 629th out of 744 forwards, and Ovechkin 497th, so…not good. That said, they performed better than some hockey media favorites: Steve Yzerman (-0.22), Pavel Datsyuk (-0.24), Mike Bossy and Pat LaFontaine (-0.26), and — if you can believe it — Mario Lemieux (-0.28). Nevermind Bryan Trottier (-0.29) and Teemu Selanne (-0.33). You cannot help but notice, all those hallowed names that underperformed Thornton and Ovechkin are Stanley Cup winners, which seems the cure for all ills. Good thing Ovi got his.

It’s also fair to point out that, on average, NHL forwards averaged -0.09 Pts/G below their regular season rates, which, plus the balm of finally winning the Cup, pretty much absolves Ovechkin.

In any case, playoff performance is clearly tricky when it comes to commentator’s narratives, and elusive to even the greatest of NHLers. Winning a Cup might adjust these narratives, for the most shallow of reasons, but I think it’s fair to say that the players who ought to really be celebrated for their playoff performance suffer a similar fate to those who never win: they are mostly forgotten.

Postscript

Since I had the data, one other juicy tidbit: who was taking more or fewer penalties in the playoffs? I’ll spare you the position split, and just do top and bottom 5:

Top Players	Played From-	To	Pos	PIM/G Above/Below Reg
Willi Plett	1975	1988	F	2.53
Lindy Ruff	1979	1991	F	1.96
Derek Sanderson	1965	1978	F	1.82
Jim Nill	1981	1990	F	1.81
Jim Peplinski	1980	1995	F	1.80
Bottom Players
Mike Peluso	1989	1998	F	-2.53
Warren Rychel	1988	1999	F	-1.77
Bryan Marchment	1988	2006	D	-1.26
Jim McKenzie	1989	2004	F	-1.23
Bob Boughner	1995	2006	D	-1.16

This almost seems an interesting, subtle evolution, where the fame and idolatry of the Broad-Street-Bullies-like approach in the playoffs, starting in the mid-1970s and flourishing across the 1980s, met some pragmatism in the 1990s and 2000s. In short, you don’t want to take penalties in the playoffs. Hence, Warren Rychel and Bryan Marchment’s playing times were cut down a full minute when their teams went to the playoffs, and Jim McKenzie’s by two minutes till he got the message in New Jersey. Considering Peluso’s pugilism rivaled Probert’s, I can only imagine the conversations between Peluso and the Devils’ management that resulted in him going from 64 penalty minutes in 17 games of the 1994 playoffs, to only 8 penalty minutes in 20 games of the 1995 playoffs. Perhaps he set the precedent for McKenzie’s treatment.

Post-postscript

The dataset for you: